THE DIFFERENCE: INDEPENDENTS
The "hard core" Dems and Republicans will not change their minds.
So the key is the independents, along with those who are swing voters plus some possible Blue Dog Democrats.
And the difference will only be in those states that are capable of being swing states, listed below.
As electorate gets more familiar with Romney, Romney favorability ratings and poll results will improve dramatically..
IT'LL BE A TIGHT RACE, SO A LITTLE DIFFERENCE MAKES A HUGE DIFFERENCE
If a candidate polls only a few percentage points extra against Obama, that would seem to be minor. But the tightness of the race is such that two percentage points difference would be what would swing the election from the Republican Presidential candidate winning to him losing. And the advantage in that category is quite clearly Romney.
Gingrich is seen as too far out by many independents and even his own party. Santorum has so much baggage and takes such a huge stand on social issues, with alot of offputting statements that he is likely to wear thin relatively quickly from his alienating stands that might appeal to evangelicals but not at all to moderates - in 2006 he was the least popular of all 100 senators! Obama would have a field day with either one - and the Republicans would lose badly. And, of course, the biggest political issue will be the economy first and then managing the government - and the most capable, proven best at that is indisputably Romney. Why Republicans are fooling around with these other guys is a mystery from a rational point of view, though I can see they are trying to get someone who agrees with their religion, is most like them, and/or who they consider to be most conservative - but Romney is indisputably conservative (see Conservative Criteria).
EXPERIENCE IS NECESSARY
We've seen what happens when a President has no experience running anything.
Romney is the only one in the field with “the views and the résumé and the organization” necessary to win." "To Ehrlich, voters aren’t concerned about time in Washington as much as “competence.” And, in his eyes, that’s what makes Romney stand out."
THE SOCIAL CONSERVATIVE ROLE
The Tea Party movement also has many social conservatives in it. Romney is clearly the only one who has successfully governed to meet the fiscal responsibility that Tea Partiers want. However, there is a false belief that Romney is not conservative enough (or will change once elected; but Romney keeps his word and walks his talk - just look at his record.
Rick Santorum’s social-conservative credentials are unquestioned, AND they have led to him making controversial comments, including criticizing “radical feminists” for encouraging women to enter the workforce, and comparing homosexuality to “man-on-dog” sex. Unfortunately for him, these may cost him among independents and swing voters in a general election but are unlikely to wound him in a Republican primary.
If conservatives and evangelicals nominate him, there will be a bloodbath in the general election.
BETTER A GOOD PART OF A LOAF THAN NO LOAF AT ALL
Although Romney is actually conservative, even if a conservative thinks he is marginal, it is better to have a Republican in the White House than none at all. For this reason, conservatives should enthusiastically support Romney with a huge turnout, which will be needed if the Republicans stand a chance of electing a Republican to the Presidency. Read Republicans Don't Make The Same Mistake As In 2008.
THE SWING STATES
The big five: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin and Colorado.
And: Nevada, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Iowa fall in line soon after.
Obama's victories in North Carolina and Indiana are highly unlikely to see sequels. Obama barely won those two states with historic political winds at his back.
Should Obama lose Florida, Ohio and Virginia, he will likely lose at least Wisconsin or Colorado. That means Republicans win the presidency.
Both Florida and Ohio shifted to Obama only after the September stock market crash.
But Republicans were secure in states like Colorado and Virginia in the Bush years. They no longer are.
Obama won nine states in 2008 that Democrats did not in 2004. But Obama was tied or trailing in six of those states prior to the market crash.